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Tropics Tuesday | New tropical depression in Atlantic

What 2018's Hurricane Florence taught us as we watch Tropical Depression 13

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — It's very active across the Atlantic basin, but thankfully there are no local threats in Jacksonville within the next week. Remember to stay updated this time of year as the historical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is approaching.

Tropical Depression 13 has formed in the Atlantic, and it is forecast to become a major hurricane by Saturday. We are watching it closely as models suggest it could head towards the Caribbean, or travel just north of the islands and near the Bahamas by mid-next week. It is too early to tell how this could impact the East Coast of the United States, but it is something to watch closely. Guidance continues to be strong on the development of this area as it moves west this week.

Credit: WTLV
Credit: WTLV

Hurricane Florence was said to be a "guaranteed fish storm" in its early beginnings in 2018, but the forecast changed and it ended up making a direct impact on the Carolina Coast. Not that this current system we're watching won't re-curve, but Florence does serve as a reminder to not write these tropical waves off too soon. Stay tuned for updates.

There are two other areas we're monitoring as well, but do not pose a concern to us at this point. Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin is located several hundred miles north of the Azores and is forecast to move quickly southeastward towards warmer waters east of the Azores. Another strong tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of West Africa on Tuesday and head toward the Cape Verde Islands.

Credit: WTLV
Credit: WTLV

It's already been a very active season. Normally by now, we'd only have 7 named storms. Instead, we've already had 11 (12 if you include the one unnamed subtropical storm in January), which is more typical for October 2.

Credit: WTLV

We urge you to stay tuned to updates all season long with areas of interest that pop up, especially as we are in the busier portion of our season through mid-October. The Atlantic hurricane season usually peaks around September 10 and runs through November 30.

Credit: WTLV

This active season isn't a surprise. NOAA called for a more active than normal season with 14-21 named storms, 6-11 hurricanes, and 2-5 major hurricanes for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. The 30-year average calls for a season with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

Therefore, NOAA is calling for 60% above normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.

Credit: WTLV
CSU July Outlook

If you live in a hurricane-prone area, it's best to always be prepared and know what hazards could affect you and your family. 

The NHC's regular tropical weather outlooks come out regularly on the 2s and 8s during the season.

Credit: WTLV

Curious about what wind shear is and how it impacts tropical systems, check out the video below. 

Go here for the latest local weather update.

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