JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — TROPICS: There are no concerns to the First Coast in the near term, but there are a couple of areas to watch for possible development.
1) Tropical Storm Odette has formed in the Atlantic. It is expected to continue away from the United States, weakening along the way. There are no threats to the First Coast at this time.
2) 95L: A tropical low is moving west across the Central Atlantic Ocean. While the environment looks favorable for further organization, the system is currently lacking a well-defined center of circulation. A tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week.
Long-range computer models do show the westward track to continue into early next week with impacts possible to the Lesser Antilles by Monday or Tuesday. Thereafter, it may be impacted by a TUTT shearing the system apart and hindering its chance of survival. Also, guidance is showing signs of re-curving over 300 miles to our east. We will continue to track the latest models and provide updates.
2) 2ND DISTURBANCE OFF AFRICAN COAST: A tropical wave located just inland over Africa is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa in the next day or so. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be somewhat conducive for additional development while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic.
September 10 was the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. While we're more than halfway through the season, the next few weeks are historically the busiest with some of the strongest hurricanes possible. Now is not the time to let your guard down! It only takes one...
We look toward the Main Development Region and Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone across the tropical Atlantic Ocean during this time of year as tropical waves move west over the basin. However, tropical cyclones can also often originate deep in the Caribbean Sea and across the Gulf of Mexico in September.
Interactive tropical radar:
SEASONAL OUTLOOK: NOAA's outlook calls for 15-21 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes in total.
“After a record-setting start, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season does not show any signs of relenting as it enters the peak months ahead,” said Rick Spinrad, Ph.D., NOAA administrator. “NOAA will continue to provide the science and services that are foundational to keeping communities prepared for any threatening storm.”
Looking deeper into the season, the Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña Watch with La Niña potentially emerging from September through November. La Niña can help make atmospheric conditions more conducive for tropical cyclones to form the Atlantic, and less conducive in the Eastern Pacific. If 2021 is any indicator so far of what lies ahead this season, it could continue to be an active year.
Hurricane season is here and it's time to be prepared if you aren't already. Make sure you have had conversations with your loved ones about what you would do if a storm were to threaten.
This year, NOAA released the new seasonal averages for the Atlantic basin. According to the 30-year data from 1991 to 2020, the new averages include 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The previous Atlantic storm averages, based on the period from 1981 to 2010, were 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The averages from 1951-1980 , were 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1 major.
Hurricane safety and preparedness are critically important even before the season begins on June 1. NOAA’s National Weather Service provides resources to prepare for hurricane hazards and real-time updates about active weather systems from the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.
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