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TROPICS: No threats to the First Coast for the next 5 days

There are no current threats to the First Coast and overall the tropics remain calm here in mid-October.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — There are no threats to the First Coast and there is no tropical development is expected within the next 5 days. All good news. Make sure you're staying tuned in for updates though.

October tropical systems tend to develop across the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico where the sea surface temperatures are still very warm. There is historically a second peak in the middle of October, but we are heading downhill now. You don't want to let your guard down just yet though. The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.

Wanda is the next name on the list for 2021 Atlantic tropical cyclones - the last name on the regular list before we would move onto the supplemental list of names.

Credit: WTLV
Tropical Outlook

From the National Hurricane Center recapping the month of September: "Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during September was above normal in terms of the numbers of named storms, and major hurricanes. Nine named storms formed in the Atlantic basin in September, with three of them becoming hurricanes, and two of those becoming major hurricanes. Larry was a long-lived category 3 hurricane that ultimately made landfall in Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane, while Nicholas made landfall near Sargent Beach, Texas, as a Category 1 hurricane. Based on a 30-year climatology (1991-2020), four named storms typically develop in September, with three of them becoming hurricanes, and one of those becoming a major hurricane.

In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the basin so far in 2021 has also been above normal, almost 50 percent above the long-term mean. The 20 named storms through the end of September is well above the 30-year (1991-2020) average of 9 to 10 named storms by the end of September."

Credit: WTLV
2021 Atlantic tropical cyclone names
Credit: WTLV
List of supplemental names for the Atlantic hurricane season
Credit: WTLV
Areas of origin for tropical systems in October
Credit: stormthursday

Interactive tropical radar:

SEASONAL OUTLOOK: NOAA's outlook calls for 15-21 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes in total.

“After a record-setting start, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season does not show any signs of relenting as it enters the peak months ahead,” said Rick Spinrad, Ph.D., NOAA administrator. “NOAA will continue to provide the science and services that are foundational to keeping communities prepared for any threatening storm.”

Looking deeper into the season, the Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña Watch with La Niña potentially emerging through November. La Niña can help make atmospheric conditions more conducive for tropical cyclones to form the Atlantic, and less conducive in the Eastern Pacific. If 2021 is any indicator so far of what lies ahead this season, it could continue to be an active year.

Hurricane season is here and it's time to be prepared if you aren't already. Make sure you have had conversations with your loved ones about what you would do if a storm were to threaten.

This year, NOAA released the new seasonal averages for the Atlantic basin. According to the 30-year data from 1991 to 2020, the new averages include 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The previous Atlantic storm averages, based on the period from 1981 to 2010, were 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The averages from 1951-1980, were 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1 major.

Credit: WTLV
Sep 10 is the historical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

RELATED: Spaghetti Plots: guidance, not a forecast!

Hurricane safety and preparedness are critically important even before the season begins on June 1. NOAA’s National Weather Service provides resources to prepare for hurricane hazards and real-time updates about active weather systems from the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.

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