Catch the 2020 NFL Draft on ABC25 this Thursday, beginning with the First Coast Sports Preview Show at 7 P.M.!
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I gotta tell you: I went back and forth on this final, Mock Draft Monday more than any of the previous, five installments. The pressure of “the last one,” right?
Or maybe because we got word this weekend that now Leonard Fournette could also be on his way out of Jacksonville.
It’s always something, right?
It should be noted: rumors of a Jalen Ramsey trade surfaced late in the 2018 season. He was not traded until October 2019. Unless the Jaguars luck into a top-tier running back on Day Two, I believe the Jaguars will keep Fournette until the 2020 trade deadline. Make no mistake about it: trading Fournette and receiving compensation is far greater than declining his fifth-year option and just letting him walk – no matter how much of a headache he may or may not be. After a 1,600, all-purpose yard season in 2019, his stock may never be higher.
The Ngakoue situation is different. Because the trade compensation (and the dollar amount Ngakoue and his team are seeking) have not matched what anyone was hoping for, I anticipate him being dealt in June or July, much like Jadaveon Clowney last summer.
Moral of the story: this Mock Draft will not feature a Fournette or Ngakoue trade.
Could it happen this weekend in real-life?
Like all things Jaguars, all we know is that we don’t know.
Round 1, Pick 9
Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
Ben Murphy and I had a heated debate about this one over the weekend. I believe that, if Jeff Okudah falls past No. 3, the Jaguars will trade up to get him. They won’t do that for Brown. As much as Dave Caldwell noted the “talent drop-off” at the defensive tackle position after the Top-Five, the Jaguars would gladly take Javon Kinlaw (or a trade-back) instead at No. 9.
… but could I also seeing Brown being there at No. 9, because no one has more luck with picks falling into his lap than Dave Caldwell?
Much like with Josh Allen and Jalen Ramsey, this pick will be called-in in 30 seconds.
Brown was featured in my first Mock Draft. I still feel the same way as I did a month-and-a-half ago: the Jaguars are addressing interior defensive line within their first three picks. What is unique about Brown, of course, is that he doesn’t play like a traditional, defensive tackle. Even if they luck into Brown, I expect the Jaguars to draft more than one DT.
Round 1, Pick 20
Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
With Okudah off the board, this becomes a “best cornerback available.” As I have detailed many a time before, the Jaguars have confidence in their scouting department when it comes to the defensive back position, having signed now-starters Tre Herndon and Jarrod Wilson as undrafted free agents.
But with Ramsey and A.J. Bouye gone, the Jaguars need an alpha dog on the perimeter.
Fulton was suspended during the 2017 season for failing an NCAA drug test. That’s a red flag. But he stuck around, bounced back, and was a leader on a National Championship team. Fulton had a 40-percent rate of completion at LSU, playing opposite freshman phenom Derek Stingley. Stingley took much of the spotlight away from Fulton; I think Fulton is looking for an opportunity to be “the guy” he was always pre-destined to be, as a Top-30 overall prospect coming out of high school.
He’s ready to start Day One – and that’s what the Jaguars need after a free agent deal with Darqueze Dennard fell through.
Round 2, Pick 42
Joshua Uche, EDGE, Michigan
Hot take: the Jaguars will not leave Day Two without having drafted an EDGE rusher.
Uche is an interesting case study. He’s an Anthony Barr-type: he could be a defensive end, but he also could be a linebacker. He didn’t start until his senior year (despite earning All-Big 10 Honorable Mention honors his junior year… also *Dave Caldwell Senior Bowl alert*). Don't forget: Josh Allen was also technically a "linebacker" in college.
Here’s the thing: Uche doesn’t have the sack numbers that Allen does. But he’s going to draw attention, opening up more opportunities for the Jaguars’ 2019 first rounder. Because of Uche’s unique skill-set, it would be interesting to see if defensive coordinator Todd Wash gets creative with him (gasp), lining up the Miami-native at different positions depending on the situation.
Round 3, Pick 73
Kyle Dugger, S, Lenoir-Rhyne
Might prove to be the hidden gem of the Jags’ 2020 Draft Class (or at least this Mock Draft).
Don’t let the small-school name scare you: Dugger is more than just a special teams gunner. If Uche is a hybrid-linebacker, Dugger is a hybrid-safety. He can cover everybody – tight ends, slot recievers, you name it. He’s strong in the run game (we know how important that is to the Jaguars this offseason), and he, too, put his pure athleticism on display at the Senior Bowl in January. Dugger was also a first-team selection as a returner (including two touchdowns). That is an area the Jaguars can most certainly afford to grow.
Injuries did limit Dugger to seven games in 2019. He still won the Cliff Harris Award, given to the best defensive player in all of Division II football.
He’s that good.
Round 3, Pick 80
TRADE ALERT!
JAGUARS receive No. 80 overall pick.
RAIDERS receive No. 140 overall pick, No. 165 overall pick
Darrynton Evans, RB, Appalachian State
Local favorites Cam Akers and Jon Greenard were both on the board here. The former will most certainly sting if Leonard Fournette is indeed traded (and if, as has become a tradition, another Florida State running back goes onto immense success for a team not named the Jaguars).
But since we’re playing the scenario that Fournette is indeed back in Jacksonville this fall: the Jaguars have expressed a desire in a change-of-pace back – something they didn’t have in 2019, when Fournette saw his receiving production grow, but he also saw 80-percent of the snaps at running back.
Evans is not going to be the bulldozer Fournette or even Ryquell Armstead are advertised to be. He’s speedy, shifty, and best in open space. Evans rushed for 1,000-plus yards each of his final two, collegiate seasons, with the Oak Hill, Florida, native benefitting from a strong offensive line. “Change of pace” back does not mean Evans will be an immediate threat in the receiving game: he only caught 39 passes in college, although 21 came his final season and five went for touchdowns. He, like Dugger, also excelled in the return game in college.
He’s projected to go in the third-fourth round, and so the Jaguars pounce at the end of Day Two.
Round 4, Pick 108
TRADE ALERT!
JAGUARS receive No. 108 overall pick.
REDSKINS receive No. 116 overall pick, 2021 7th Round pick
Saddiq Charles, OT, LSU
WAKE UP!! It’s Saturday morning and Dave Caldwell isn’t messing around!
Charles has been a bit of a polarizing prospect, projected anywhere from the third to sixth rounds. I would presume much of that is due to Charles’ various red flags: he missed six games this fall for disciplinary reasons and another three his sophomore year due to injury. That doesn’t fit what Doug Marrone appears to be building in his locker room.
But here’s the thing: Charles has been a starter in the SEC since he was a true freshman. He has played at left tackle, right tackle, and right guard. That’s versatility Doug Marrone needs.
Charles is a work in progress. He needs to continue to build his frame and technique. But the Jaguars claim they’re confident in their offensive line as is. That would afford Charles at least a year to learn and grow.
Round 4, Pick 137
Devin Duvernay, WR, Texas
Dave Caldwell told reporters last week that, despite “The Big Three,” projected first-rounders, this year’s wide receiver class is the deepest it’s been since 2014. Caldwell added that not only could guys in the mid-to-late rounds “be productive starters Year One,” but undrafted free agents, too.
(That’s why I just don’t see them going wide receiver in Round One. Sorry, youguys.)
But Caldwell isn’t entirely wrong. Duvernay was top-five nationally this fall with 106 receptions. He tallied 1,386 yards and nine touchdowns – a 13-yards per catch average. He is a slot receiver with strong hands that lead to more yards after the catch. For all the talk of the Jaguars not picking up Leonard Fournette’s fifth-year option: what do you do if Dede Westbrook walks after 2020? Duvernay could be waiting in the wings.
Also, since the Jaguars aren’t going to be getting Henry Ruggs III and his 4.2, 40-yard dash: Duvernay is another one of those “different” speedsters Doug Marrone alluded to a few weeks ago. He ran a 4.39 at the Combine and was a Texas State Champion in the 100-meter dash (10.27).
Round 5, Pick 157
Harrison Bryant, TE, Florida Atlantic
I selected Bryant in a previous Mock Draft, and I just keep coming back to the 2019 Mackey Award winner. That bears repeating: the guy won the Mackey Award. The Mackey Award winner in 2018 went eighth overall! The Mackey Award winner in 2017 went in the third-round and is now a Pro Bowler!
Maybe it’s the benefit of playing in the “Lane Train’s” offense, but I just can’t see a guy who caught 65 catches for 1,004 yards NOT bringing SOMETHING to an NFL offense. Especially a Jaguars offense that hasn’t had a full-time tight end in years.
Yes, Bryant is lean. He “looks more like a receiver” (funny, considering he arrived at FAU as an offensive lineman). By many accounts, All-Pro George Kittle was too skinny when he arrived at Iowa – and in the NFL.
Kittle, by the way, was a fifth-round pick.
Round 6, Pick 181 (Give up 7th rounder this year)
TRADE ALERT!
JAGUARS receive No. 181 overall pick
BRONCOS receive No. 189 overall pick, No. 223 overall pick
Jake Luton, QB, Oregon State
Dave Caldwell told us last week that, if a quarterback “presented themselves” that they liked in the Draft, they’d take him. But there is no “pressure” to be drafting a quarterback; there are plenty of veterans on the street (I hear some guy named Cam Newton is still unemployed, FWIW).
The quarterback Caldwell and Co. hopes will present himself is Luton, the 6’6’’, 224 lb’er who started 21 games for Oregon State. I don’t believe they see Luton anymore than a competent back-up – but a good one, at that. In his redshirt senior campaign, Luton threw for 28 touchdowns and just three interceptions in 11 games (he rarely fumbles, too). Only concern: Luton did suffer a thoracic spine fracture in 2017.
This is a very lean quarterback class, and once the likes of Luton and Iowa’s Nate Stanley are gone in Round 4/5/6, the arm strength among the remaining quarterbacks just isn’t there. And no one – not Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, anyone – threw less interceptions than Luton this year.
Round 6, Pick 206
Bravvion Roy, DT, Baylor
I was tempted to take another offensive linemen here, but with the Jaguars re-signing of Tyler Shatley, I truly believe they are higher on their offensive line (and its depth) than the rest of us.
Roy is a true nose tackle. Derrick Brown is not.
The Jaguars still need one.
Roy’s height and length are not great (6’1’’ compared to 333 lbs). But he’s quick off the line of scrimmage and was a three-year starter for Matt Rhule at Baylor. Roy did play in a 3-4 system, so he would also be adjusting to the Jaguars’ scheme. One analyst actually likened him to a “Sheldon Day type in a 4-3 front” (sorry, too soon?)
He’s not going to be able to play every snap and that’s okay: the Jaguars learned first-hand this past season that depth must be a priority. Roy doesn’t just take up space: he eats up blockers for lunch, especially in the run game.
The Jaguars could most certainly use some of that.
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Well, that was fun! And a lot more work than I thought! Let's do this again next Monday at lunch time, shall we?
And don't forget: you can watch all three rounds of the 2020 NFL Draft LIVE on ABC25 April 23-25, 2020.
Hit me up on Twitter at @MiaOBrienTV or mobrien1@firstcoastnews.com with your thoughts for next week's Monday Mock.