This week's Jaguars Mailbag features questions about depth concerns, impending contract extensions and more.
Hollywood Cole on Twitter asks: [Which] player would be the most catastrophic loss this season, with taking depth into account?
Mike Kaye: With most teams - not named the Philadelphia Eagles - the quarterback position is the most irreplaceable spot on the roster. While Blake Bortles has his detractors, his growth last season within the Jaguars' offense has made him an important asset. His backup, Cody Kessler, has a 0-8 record as a starter, granted those losses came during a 1-31 stretch for the Cleveland Browns.
The drop off between Bortles and Kessler, if the starter were to suffer a long-term injury, would be noticeable. Bortles is significantly more athletic and has a much better feel for the deep passing attack. While the defense and running game carried the team throughout most of last season, Bortles' ability to play well within the system and limit his mistakes enabled the Jaguars to win some key games throughout the campaign, including the AFC divisional round win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
On defense, Telvin Smith is probably the guy the Jaguars can't afford to lose for a long period of time. While Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye, Malik Jackson, Yannick Ngakoue and Calais Campbell are all fellow Pro Bowl players, Smith is the lone member of the all-star crew without a clear-cut quality backup.
If Ramsey or Bouye goes down, the team has D.J. Hayden, who has started several games in the league on the outside. If Jackson goes does down, the Jaguars could move Campbell or Marcell Dareus to three-technique and swing Taven Bryan or Abry Jones to their former positions. If Ngakoue suffers an injury, the Jaguars have former first-round pick Dante Fowler waiting in the wings. Campbell could theoretically be replaced by Jackson, Jones, Bryan or Fowler.
Behind Smith and starting middle linebacker Myles Jack, the depth is largely unknown. While Blair Brown seems like an ideal backup for either starter, his opportunity at SAM linebacker may force him away from the other two positions. Leon Jacobs and Donald Payne are both still learning how to play as NFL linebackers. While Payne was productive at middle linebacker during OTAs, it's hard to know if he can be trusted to play a prominent role when the real bullets fly.
@YoJoeCool asks: How will the Danielle Hunter extension impact Yannick Ngakoue's inevitable extension?
MK: Hunter received a five-year, $72 million extension from the Minnesota Vikings on Wednesday. The deal comes with $40 million in guaranteed money and a $15 million signing bonus, according to NFL.com. That's a pretty nice payday, to say the least.
In order to compare both players, we have to look at their production. Both Hunter and Ngakoue play in Top 3 defenses with all-stars throughout their units. Both pass rushers also have teammates who are due big extensions in the near-future as well.
Hunter has produced 25.5 sacks over the last three seasons. Entering his third season last year, Hunter had produced 18.5 sacks.
Ngakoue enters this season - his third - with 20 sacks. Unlike Hunter, who became a starter in his third season, Ngakoue has started in 31 of his 32 games with the Jaguars. Ngakoue also leads the league with 10 forced fumbles over the last two seasons.
As with any major contract in the NFL, the market dictates the price of an extension. Typically, the next man up receives a larger sum than the guy before him because with positions like defensive end, they are considered premium assets. Ngakoue will receive a large deal based on his previous production and clear upside. A five-year, $80 million extension with something like $45 million in guarantees would be a logical ballpark price at this point.
Like Hunter, Ngakoue is only 23 and has produced at an All-Pro rate on a third-round pick salary. To put that into perspective, backup center Tyler Shatley is set to make $65,000 more than Ngakoue this season.
The Jaguars have paid Ngakoue pennies for Pro Bowl production and they will likely look to make up for those cheap bills with a massive extension next offseason. Ngakoue is one of many internal success stories for general manager Dave Caldwell and rewarding the player with an extraordinary extension will not only be good for the decision-maker and playmaker but the locker room as well.
Matt Thompson asks: What are the expectations for this team, and how does the talent on the roster compare to last year's team?
MK: The expectations internally are high. This is a team that held the lead in the fourth quarter of the AFC Championship Game against the New England Patriots just five months ago. There's a lot of room for optimism.
The roster is relatively similar to last year's group. The only key contributors who are no longer around are punter Brad Nortman, left guard Patrick Omameh, tight end Marcedes Lewis, nickel cornerback Aaron Colvin and wide receiver Allen Hurns. That fab five has been replaced by seventh-round punter Logan Cooke, All-Pro guard Andrew Norwell, former second-round pick Austin Seferian-Jenkins, former first-round pick D.J. Hayden and wide receiver Donte Moncrief, respectively. Some of the replacements are upgrades and some of them are downgrades but that's the nature of the business with free agency and salary caps.
The bright side for those hoping for a return to the postseason is that the starting lineup on defense - outside of Colvin/Paul Posluszny - is back. Bortles has seemingly made strides this offseason and the Jaguars have a very deep group at wide receiver.
With all that said, the Jaguars' impressive turnover rate and ability to avoid injuries on defense are probably unsustainable. The AFC South looks to be much-improved and the potential returns of Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson will make it harder for the Jaguars to sweep the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans this season. There's also the fact that the team will take on Super Bowl squads, New England and Philadelphia, this year.
At this point, I have the Jaguars finishing 9-7, which should be good enough to land them the sixth seed in the AFC playoff picture. Once they get back to the dance, anything is possible.
Follow Mike Kaye on Twitter: @Mike_E_Kaye.