You non-Jaguar fans in Northeast Florida/Southeast Georgia have had to endure six weeks of Jaguars mock drafts.
“Why can’t you tell me who the BRONCOS are going to take?”
“Will the Bears trade into the first round?”
“TUA TUA TUA TUA TUA TUA”
(okay, maybe that last one didn’t happen)
But you asked. Here it is.
Trades and all, my full, first-round Mock Draft.
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
1. Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
The sky is blue.
Joe Burrow is going home to Ohio.
2. Redskins: Chase Young, DE, Ohio State
Sure, Washington already has two, former first-rounders its defensive line in Montez Sweat and Jonathan Allen. But neither are Chase Young.
If Riverboat Ron does pass on the former Ohio State product (would only be if they trade-out of the No. 2 spot), the Lions’ personnel better have plenty bandwith for the avalanche of emails and phone calls from the other 31 teams.
3. Lions: Jeff Okudah, CB, Lions
For a while, I thought the Lions would trade out of the No. 3 spot. They’re seemingly still committed to quarterback Matt Stafford, and ~only~ have nine picks in the 2020 NFL Draft. There’s plenty of holes to fill, and more picks = more holes filled, right?
But the departure of Darius Slay leaves Detroit without a true alpha dog in the secondary. Okudah is that and then some. Much like the Redskins, you just don’t pass on this sort of talent.
4. TRADE! Chargers: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
Hey now! No Tua as Los Angeles keeps Herbert on the West Coast [best coast].
You can blame my old-school dad for what you’re about to see in this Mock Draft. Herbert is not only the “safer” pick: he’s your stereotypical quarterback build. His measurables are Phillip Rivers almost to a T. And while yes, he’s still got a lot to learn, coming from Oregon’s spread offense, the Chargers are confident in Tyrod Taylor as their Week One starter. Whichever quarterback L.A. opts for, they’ll have a year to learn.
5. Dolphins: Mekhi Becton, OL, Louisville
No Tua??
Listen, they may know something in South FLA we don’t know.
Whoever is playing under-center in Miami next fall will be playing with fire if the Dolphins don’t continue to upgrade their line. The team gave up a league worst 58 sacks in 2019. Miami gets a head-start by picking the first of the “Big Four” offensive tackles.
I think Becton’s drug test might give some teams pause, but the measurables are too hard to ignore.
6. Giants: Jedrick Willis, OT, Alabama
This pick comes down to Willis or Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs, as quarterback Daniel Jones was sacked 38 times last season. GM Dave Gettleman and his one-computer-war room set-up see “GET A RIGHT TACKLE!” on the top of his Post-It note, to-do list. Willis comes first in alphabetical order, so that’s Gettleman’s pick.
7. TRADE! Buccaneers: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
The offensive linemen run is on.
Plenty of folks believe the Buccaneers, originally slated for Pick 14 and with just seven selections, have reason to trade down to acquire more capital. That’s great to think about the future. Only problem: Tom Brady is in the here and now, and he needs protection. Tampa gave up 47 sacks last season – and that was with a more mobile Jameis Winston under center.
If the Bucs don’t trade-up, they won’t get one of the elite tackles.
8. Cardinals: Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa
A month ago, this pick is CeeDee Lamb, and it’s Boomer Sooner time in Phoenix.
A month ago, DeAndre Hopkins was on the Texans.
The Cards have a top-five receiver in the league already on their roster (keep an eye out for wide receiver Hakeem Butler, too, who missed his rookie season with injury BTW FWIW HI, IOWA STATE FANS). So, Arizona turns their attention to protecting Kyler Murray. And in doing so, they squash my hopes of a Linn County, Iowa, reunion in Jacksonville.
But that also means…
9. Jaguars: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
Another year, another highly-rated prospect falling into Dave Caldwell’s lap.
As detailed in my final, Monday Mock Draft, the Jags aren’t trading up for Brown. If he’s not here, they’ll trade down and be more than happy with Javon Kinlaw. But if Brown is here, the pick will be submitted in 30 seconds.
10. TRADE! Broncos: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
John Elway lucked out with Drew Locke and Dalton Risner falling to him in the second round last year; he’s not taking any chances with providing Locke with the most highly-touted weapon in this year’s Draft class. The Broncos have three, third-round selections. They have the ammunition to move up.
Why Jeudy? I thought about his former running mate, Henry Ruggs III, in this spot for days. Denver already has Courtland Sutton entrenched at the “X” spot. After him, the cupboard’s pretty bare – especially in the slot, once Emmanuel Sanders was traded midway through last year. Jeudy can do it all out of the slot (or on the perimeter). Because it’s Sutton and then… well, DaeSean Hamilton and his 540 career receiving yards, Denver opts for the more versatile of the two.
11. TRADE! Falcons: C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida
Atlanta has not been shy in expressing its interest in the former Gator. Most Big Boards have Okudah, then Henderson, and then a considerable drop-off; so the Falcons aren’t going to mess around. They were 10th worst in the league last year in passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed.
They have two draftees from their previous two classes at corner right now (Kendall Sheffield and Isaiah Oliver), but Henderson has just a hair more name recognition. While Henderson is not going to be racking up the interceptions, Sheffield and Oliver have one between the two of them over the past two seasons.
12. Raiders: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma
That weird noise you’re hearing is Jon Gruden grinding his teeth and licking his chops.
It also might be Mark Davis doing who knows what, but I’m trying to keep this Mock Draft PG.
Tyrell Williams caught six touchdowns last year. Hunter Renfrow caught four and is a great story. But Lamb will give the Raiders that “Hollywood,” electric play-maker they’ll need now more than ever under the bright lights of Las Vegas.
13. 49ers: Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama
With two first-round selections, the defending NFC Champs could absolutely afford to trade down. They already have Deebo Samuel!
… and after him?
John Lynch’s rebuild has been comprised of undrafted free agent signings and late-round draft picks. With the exception of Samuel and Dante Pettis, none of their receivers were drafted until the fifth round or later. George Kittle was a fifth-round pick.
At this stage of the game, the offensive line is built. The defensive line is very-much built. San Francisco can afford to take a game-changing play-maker.
14. Panthers: Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina
Fun facts I discovered throughout Draft research: the Panthers’ defensive line was second in sacks last season, with 53. Want to know how many of those sacks they have coming back in 2020?
10.5.
Kinlaw is not going to rack up sacks, but this defensive line is depleted. Matt Rhule needs to start somewhere, and up the middle sounds about right. Especially considering the Panthers gave up 143.5 yards on the ground per game last year – fourth worst in the NFL.
15. Browns: Isaiah Simmons, Defensive Player, Clemson
OHMYGOD he was still on the Board?
(wait, so is Tua?)
Maybe both don’t fall this far, but one of them very well could, simply because most teams have more pressing needs. The Browns do, too: offensive line. But with the Big Four off the board by the time they picked at 10, Cleveland opts to gain more draft capital (the Browns have finally come back down to Earth and have a mere seven picks in 2020). They still manage to snag Simmons, who might eventually be the best defensive player in the Draft. Don’t forget: for all their offensive line woes, the Browns were third-worst in rushing defense in 2019.
And yes, I listed him as a Defensive Player.
16. Jets: Josh Jones, OT, Houston
They, too, missed out on the Big Four. No problem: Gang Green picks up some more picks and a shiny, new left tackle. Like their New York brotherin the Giants, protecting the quarterback is tops on the Jets’ priority list. Sam Darnold (and that hodgepodge of quarterbacks who filled in for him while he had mono) were sacked 52 times last season, fourth-worst in the NFL.
While Jones remains a raw prospect, the talent is there. He just needs coaching. The Jets’ current starting left tackle is free agent signee George Fant, who has also been used as a hybrid tight end and has 40 career games to his name.
17. Cowboys: K’lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU
Jerry Jones sat back, watched the Draft world burn, and still came away with the Draft’s second-best EDGE rusher.
Chaisson would be an immediate compliment to DeMarcus Lawrence, and many scouts feel he is still just “scratching the surface.” Chaisson had 60 tackles, 13.5 TFL and 6.5 sacks in 2019.
Damnit, Jerry.
18. Dolphins: Tua Tagavailoa, QB, Alabama
Well, well, well. Oh the turntables.
Quick review. Of the teams that passed on Tua, the following have a franchise quarterback they are committed to beyond (at least) this year: Giants, Bucs, Cardinals, Browns, Broncos, Jets, 49ers, Panthers and Cowboys.
The remaining teams (Jaguars, Falcons, Raiders) have quarterbacks they said they’re committed to, even if their timeline is up for debate. All three also have far too many other holes to address – ditto to many of the first group.
It was always going to be Tank for Tua.
19. Raiders: Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama
As it stands, both the Raiders’ starting safeties played somewhere else last season. And neither Jeff Heath nor Damarious Randall played in all 16 games.
McKinney played in every game the last two seasons for the Crimson Tide. He’s athletic as they come, and can play in coverage (5 interceptions, 15 passes defended the last two years) or crowd the box (95 tackles his junior year!)
20. Jaguars: Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
As detailed in my Monday Mock Draft, the Jaguars go best player available... at corner.
It’s great that Tre Herndon, a former undrafted free agent, has proven to be a viable starter. But the next Jalen Ramsey (or even A.J. Bouye) ain’t walking in off the street.
… and D.J. Hayden is a nickel cornerback. Please. Do it for Hayden’s Homies.
21. Eagles: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
Okay, so originally I had the Vikings giving up everything but the kitchen sink here to avoid the Eagles taking their guy at wide receiver, but who are we kidding. The Eagles already have enough picks this year (10), the “fastest rising receiver” in the Draft is there, why would they trade down?
By the way, I had the ultimate punch line of the Vikings taking Denzel Mims here, not Jefferson. Oh, Mike Zimmer.
22. Vikings: Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor
(LOL, they got him anyways)
FWIW, ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit had a second-round grade on Mims.
23. Patriots: A.J. Epenesa, EDGE, Iowa
The Belichick-Ferentz connection remains strong, young Padawan. And New England might have just scored the defensive end who will end up having the most productive, NFL career of the lot.
Wash, rinse, repeat again.
24. Saints: Patrick Queen, LB, LSU
If you’re keeping score, Queen becomes the fifth Tiger off the board. The National Championship hangover is real.
The Saints don’t really have any holes, so they can choose to strengthen wherever they so choose. Up the middle sounds like a pretty good place to start – especially considering their projected starting MIKE linebacker, former Gator Alex Anzalone, appeared in just two games last year.
25. TRADE! Browns: Isaiah Wilson, OT, Georgia
Baker Mayfield saw the Browns neglecting the offensive line and immediately hopped on the horn, threatening to start a Twitter feud if new GM Andrew Berry didn’t do something, ANYTHING.
And while Wilson is far more of a “developmental” prospect than his former teammate Andrew Thomas, he’s also one of the highest risers in the Draft. Cleveland did just sign former Titan Jack Conklin to be their right tackle; can Wilson move to left on the fly? He has the size and length to be a tackle, but maybe a switch to guard isn’t out of the question?
He’s 6’6’’, 350 lbs. Just put him in front of Baker (and he has experience blocking for Nick Chubb, so that’s a plus)
26. TRADE! Colts: Jordan Love, QB, Utah State
Indianapolis just signed Phillip Rivers. Love is the wildcard of this year’s quarterback class.
They’ve bought themselves some time for a project. They know Rivers, at 38 years old, is not a long-term solution.
And, given the continued development of their offensive line, whoever is slinging the rock will have “time:” Jacoby Brissett had an average of 2.93 seconds to throw, second-best in the NFL.
27. Seahawks: Yetur Gross-Matos, EDGE, Penn State
Jadaveon Clowney remains unsigned. Seattle doesn’t appear any closer to a deal for Yannick Ngakoue than any other team.
Gross-Matos had more sacks than any current member of the Seahawks… as a sophomore.
The road back to the “Legion of Boom” lies in creating a strong pass rush.
28. Ravens: Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma
Much like the Saints, the Ravens don’t have too many holes. Weakside linebacker Matt Judon has grown more vocal about his discontent with the franchise tag, but, much like Ngakoue, I don’t see Baltimore dealing him.
In their 3-4 defense, L.J. Fort and Chris Board are currently slated as the team’s inside linebackers. Neither had more than 35 tackles in 2019, and while stats don’t tell the whole story, it’s safe to say this is one position where the Ravens could afford to develop a player long term. Future Walter Payton Man of the Year Kenneth Murray checks all the boxes.
29. Titans: Austin Jackson, OT, USC
Jack Conklin is gone. The Titans still have Derrick Henry. They will run the ball.
Any questions?
30. Packers: Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado
I love me some Allen Lazard.
But he can’t be Aaron Rodgers only weapon [not named Davante Adams].
Yes, Green Bay signed Devin Funchess in the off-season. But he played in one game last season after suffering a collarbone injury. Not saying Shenault is going to be lining up in the slot week-in and week-out, but he is a three-level threat. At 6’5’’, 227 lbs, Lazard is certainly a bigger bodied receiver. Shenault is smaller in height but has an even higher ceiling.
31. 49ers: A.J. Terrell, CB, Clemson
After Emmanuel Moseley’s break-out, 2019 campaign and Richard Sherman’s continued resurgence, many may look at this one as a bit head scratching. I, too, could see San Francisco trading down.
But Sherman is also 32 years old and on the final year of a three-year deal. Terrell can learn under him in 2020 and be waiting in the wings should Sherman and San Fran part ways after this season.
32 Chiefs: Cesar Ruiz, C, Michigan
Jaguars GM Dave Caldwell maintains that this might be one of the better center classes in recent memory. Ruiz is at the top of just about everyone’s boards – and by all accounts he could play guard, too. The Chiefs elevated back-up Austin Reiter to their starting center position before the 2019 season. Even if he remains there, KC could use upgrades all along the interior of the line. Ruiz could always start out at a guard position and eventually succeed Reiter.
And yes, a lot of folks will say linebacker is currently KC’s biggest hole.
Don’t bring down my Hawkeyes Ben Niemann and Anthony Hitchens like that.
- - - - - - - - - -
And don't forget: you can watch all three rounds of the 2020 NFL Draft LIVE on ABC25 April 23-25, 2020.
Hit me up on Twitter at @MiaOBrienTV or mobrien1@firstcoastnews.com with your thoughts on this mock draft and anything 2020 NFL Draft.
