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MILES MATTER: A small change in distance, a big change in weather

We will be closely monitoring how close Hurricane Dorian's eye-wall is to the First Coast and how that will affect our local impacts.

The northern turn of Hurricane Dorian is on many of our minds with the question, "How close will it be to Florida?" There have been positive trends lately that may keep Dorian's eyewall, the most powerful part of a hurricane, offshore. But how far offshore is the next question. A difference of just a few miles will mean a big difference to our local weather.

Miles matter

The next critical part of Dorian's forecast is the turn to the north, which will happen on Labor Day. While we are liking the positive trends of a more easterly track after the turn, most of the First Coast remains in the cone of uncertainty. Slight shifts by only a few miles could add up to a big difference.

Credit: wtlv weather
If Dorian's eyewall takes a more easterly track once it turns north, the majority of the most dangerous winds will stay offshore.
Credit: wtlv weather
If Dorian's eyewall takes a more westerly track, local impacts to the First Coast would be more significant.

Why the eastern shift?

Meteorologists Mike Prangley and Steve Fundaro discuss the variables affecting Dorian's expected northern turn, and how some are hinting at an easterly trend.

There still remains plenty of uncertainty in Dorian's future track, please stay locked into the forecast and updates.

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