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Coronavirus forecast: April 21 projected as Florida's peak

Researchers predict coronavirus deaths per day will spike in Florida over the next few weeks.

FLORIDA, USA — It's going to get worse before it gets better.

New data compiled by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projects a coronavirus peak in Florida on April 21 for both deaths per day and hospital resource use.

DEATHS PER DAY

Researchers believe COVID-19 daily deaths will reach an all-time high in the state of Florida on April 21, 2020, with 242 deaths.

The IHME data projects 6,770 total deaths in Florida by August 4.

As of April 7, the Florida Department of Health is reporting 283 total deaths in Florida.

The same model shows a grim nationwide outlook, as well, with 81,766 deaths expected across the United States. The projected national peak in daily deaths is April 16 with 3,130 deaths.

HOSPITAL RESOURCE USE

Researchers have pegged April 21 as the worst day for Florida hospitals, predicting the state will be short 769 ICU beds and 2,095 ventilators.

Nationally, IHME data shows April 15 as the peak for hospital resource use, predicting American hospitals will have a shortage of 16,323 ICU beds and 24,828 ventilators on that day.

IHME gets its data from local and national governments, hospital networks, the American Hospital Association, the World Health Organization, and a range of other sources. The model is updated regularly as new data becomes available.

The researchers leave a fairly large margin of error. For example, even though April 21st is pegged as Florida's peak with 242 daily deaths, the range of uncertainty is between 88-569 deaths due to limited and conflicting data and study sizes.

The projection goes through July and assumes that social distancing measures will continue.

According to IHME's website, these medical forecasts were developed to provide hospitals, health care workers, policymakers, and the public with crucial information about what demands COVID-19 may place on hospital capacity and resources so that they can plan accordingly.

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