PITTSBURGH -- Remember that wave of optimism and good feeling that
typically greets a presidential inauguration, not to mention a new year?
This time, it's hard to find.
Battered
by an economy that is only slow recovering - and soured by the
spectacle of Washington dysfunction in the "fiscal cliff" debate - views
of the nation's future and its fundamental promise have darkened in the
four years since Barack Obama's first inauguration.
Then, even
during an unfolding financial crisis, Americans believed by a
double-digit margin that it was likely young people would have a better
life than their parents, one facet of the classic American dream. Now, a
USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds they're narrowly inclined to say that's not
likely. By 50%-47%, respondents say the country's best years are behind
us.
"I'm pessimistic about where the country is and where it's
going," says Rick Rogoff, 55, the owner of a small food-service company
here, ticking off the reasons why. "From the cost of living to the
quality of health care to inflation to the politics of the country - the
partisanship, it's endless. I'm not really a pessimist. I'm a realist. I
look at the situation and it's hard to find things that are good."
Even
those with a more upbeat perspective sound less than confident. "I'm
optimistic," Tamera Bryant, 39, the auditor for a non-profit
organization, says of Obama's next four years, "but I think it's going
to be a fight."
Call us weary and wary.
Results from the
nationwide poll and interviews in this Ohio River Valley city, which
counts George Washington among its founders, underscore the rocky road
Obama and other officials face in convincing Americans the nation can
address its most persistent problems - and that they can be trusted to
lead the way.
In the new poll, more than three of four Americans
say the way politics works in Washington is causing serious harm to the
country.
At a roundtable discussion in Pittsburgh and in follow-up
interviews, the mood was subdued. Rogoff and Bryant were among 11 local
residents with divergent points of view who met to discuss the
prospects ahead for the president and the nation. Near the end of the
evening, five raise their hands to say the nation's best days are ahead.
The other six say the best days for the United States already have
passed.
Over the past few years, some have seen job layoffs in
their families and neighbors facing home foreclosures. Others worry that
deficit spending, government regulations and the health care overhaul
law are eroding individual freedoms. Last month's shootings at Sandy
Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn., shadowed their thoughts and
the holidays.
They are divided about Obama but united in their
disdain for Congress and Washington. By 4-1, Americans disapprove of the
way Congress is handling its job. The perils-of-Pauline negotiations
over the year-end budget and tax negotiations dubbed the fiscal cliff
have fueled the sense that the government no longer functions as it
should.
"I just wish the politicians would be unified for what's
the good of the country, instead of the special interests and the
partisanship and the party line. Just do what's right for the people of
this country," Rogoff says. "We'd be unstoppable. But it seems like
we've gone over the cliff on that."
"If they could work together,
they could get more stuff done," Diana Jackson, 47, a customer-service
representative, agrees. "I also think like this: We voted them in so
they could do a job. If I didn't do my job, I'd get fired. Why can't
they be accountable for not doing their job? They've forgotten why
they're there."
Heads nod around the table.
Not-so-great expectations
The
stratospheric expectations that surrounded Obama's groundbreaking
election in 2008 have fallen back to Earth - not to dismal levels, but
to decidedly lower ones.
Then, two-thirds in a USA TODAY/Gallup
Poll said they were "optimistic" and "proud" in reaction to Obama's
election; now, about half cite those emotions in response to his
re-election. Then, six in 10 were "excited"; now, four in 10 feel that
way.
Negative reactions run higher now. Three in 10 were
"pessimistic" in response to his election four years ago; now 43% are.
Then, 27% described their response as "afraid"; that number has jumped
to 36%.
The poll of 1,025 adults taken Dec. 14-17 has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
Perspectives
on Obama spark the most impassioned exchanges of the roundtable
discussion. In the group, five had voted for Obama and five for
Republican Mitt Romney; one had backed Green Party nominee Jill Stein.
"He's
doing the best he can with what he's got," Jackson says of Obama.
Michelle Stearns, 44, a social worker, wonders whether the friction
between the political parties "is just people being prejudiced." At
school, she says, her children hear "horrible racial slurs" against the
president. She asks: "If Obama had been white, how would this have
gone?"
Jennifer Majcher, 44, a stay-at-home mom and supporter of
the Tea Party movement, counters heatedly that opposition to Obama has
nothing to do with racial prejudice and everything to do with opposition
to the policies he has pursued.
"He spent his way through
everything," she says. "He pushed through everything he wanted and
blamed (George W.) Bush for everything. I'm frustrated that people are
blind to all the damage he has caused this country."
Asked to
describe in a word or two what Obama's second term will be like, Majcher
and Rogoff say "more of the same." The other Romney voters use similar
language. Matt Gailey, a 33-year-old lawyer, says "depressing" and Dan
Davis, 27, who works in a bank, says "disappointing." Armend
Engelbrecht, 31, the owner of an auto mechanic firm, predicts "a dismal
failure for the country."
Among the Obama voters, the optimism of four years ago has been
tempered. Kimberly Gillis, 42, a high-school English teacher, says it
will be "positive" and Stearns struggles to find a word, then settles on
"interesting." Jackson predicts a "tug of war." Jim Pierce, 48, who
manages housing units, expects a "stalemate."
Karl Greenley, 34, a
tech consultant who voted for the Green Party candidate for president,
thinks the next four years will be "fraught with conflict."
Americans
do see Obama's re-election as being consequential. In the USA TODAY
poll, half say the fact he won the White House rather than Romney will
make a great deal of difference to the future of the country. Just one
in five say his election will make not much or no difference.
By
3-1, those surveyed predict that, in the next four years, Obama will be
more liberal rather than more conservative than he was in his first
term. There is wariness about the impact his second-term policies will
have: 35% predict they will make their own financial situations better;
42% say they will make them worse.
And nearly three years after he
signed his signature achievement into law, the president has yet to
convince most Americans that the Affordable Care Act will prove to be a
positive for them and their families. Four in 10 say the law designed to
expand health coverage will make things worse; three in 10 say it will
make things better.
Just 12% predict the law will make things for
them "a lot better." Nearly twice as many, 21%, say it will make things
"a lot worse."
In the roundtable, there is uncertainty and
concern about what the provisions of the law will mean when fully
implemented. "Obamacare is going to bankrupt us all," says Gailey, who
calls the law unsustainable and complains that the United States is
becoming more like the social welfare states of Europe.
Majcher
worries the programs that have helped cover services for her 8-and
11-year-old sons, who have attention-deficit and anxiety disorders, may
be curtailed as a result of the law. "The government has been there for
my children, but I'm a little worried what is going to happen," she
says. "Is this all going to change?"
Is that a light?
Americans do see a flicker of light at the end what has been a long tunnel.
Four
years ago, just 13% of Americans said they were satisfied with the way
things were going in the USA. At the time, financial institutions from
big banks to the auto industry were in crisis as the economic contracted
and unemployment soared. Now, 23% express satisfaction with the
country's course - still significantly lower than when previous recent
presidents took office for their second terms. For Bush in 2005, 45%
were satisfied; for Bill Clinton in 1997, 43%; for Ronald Reagan in
1985, 52%.
Memories of the economic travails of the past few years
are fresh. Jackson was laid off when her employer decided to contract
out customer services; after five weeks the new firm hired her back but
with less generous health care coverage and no 401(k) retirement plan.
Pierce has watched as the low- and moderate-income families in housing
units he manages struggle, "affording less, living on shoe strings,
eating ramen" noodles.
In the poll, more than a third say either
they or one of their closest family members have suffered a "major
financial setback" in the past year; just one in five report a major
financial gain in their family. While the economy, in fact, is growing
again - the recession officially ended in June 2009 - just a third of
Americans see it that way. They're outnumbered by the 44% who say it's
in a recession or a depression.
There is more optimism when
Americans consider their own families and their personal lives. They are
inclined to say they and their families are better off rather than
worse off than they were one year ago. Looking ahead, by an overwhelming
69%-27%, they are optimistic about how their family will fare in 2013.
"I
see what seems to be an improvement in housing and the real-estate
industry, and overall I think there have been more jobs," Stearns says.
"There for a while, I know at my husband's job, they weren't doing
raises; they were cutting everything. All of a sudden, in the past year
or two, things have gotten better for them."
Still, predictions for the nation in 2013 are almost all downbeat.
By
2-1, those surveyed expect this year to be one of economic difficulty,
not one of prosperity. A majority say employment will improve and
inflation will be under control. But more than eight in 10 also say
taxes and the crime rate will rise. Three of four predict a "troubled
year" of international discord, not a peaceful one. Most believe
American power around the globe will decline.
Last month's mass
shooting in Newtown has reinforced a sense that the nation has gotten
off-track in ways that seem beyond anyone's ability to remedy.
At
the roundtable discussion, asked what has gotten worse about the country
since they were growing up, Bryan offers: "Kids shooting kids."
"This
country has way too many deaths attributed to weapons, to guns, like no
other country in the world," Rogoff says in a follow-up interview. The
shock of the Connecticut shootings has the National Rifle Association
"running a little scared" at the moment, but he says experience suggests
that won't last. "Long-term, the people have short memories."
In
addition to doing more to control assault-style weapons and
high-capacity magazines, Greenley says the government should fund and
mandate safety training for gun owners, similar to that required to get a
driver's license. But he doubts that or much else will happen. "The
reaction so far seems like a lot of spinning wheels," he says.
USA Today