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Abouttwo-thirds of adults in Mississippi and several other states will beobese by 2030 if obesity rates continue to climb as they are now, ananalysis reports today.

The levels ofobesity, defined as being roughly 30 or more pounds over a healthyweight, will be highest in these five states: Mississippi with 66.7%;Oklahoma, 66.4%; Delaware, 64.7%; Tennessee, 63.4%; and South Carolina,62.9%.Mississippi has the USA's highest obesity rate at 34.9%.

Coloradois predicted to be the state with the lowest obesity rate at 44.8% in2030; right now, about 20.7% of adults fall into that category.

Theprediction says that 13 states will have adult obesity rates over 60%;all 50 states would have rates above 44%. The lone exception would bethe District of Columbia, projected to have an obesity rate of 32.6% by2030.

Extra weight increases the risk of type2 diabetes, heart disease, stroke, many types of cancer, sleep apneaand other chronic illnesses.

At thistrajectory, "more people will have preventable diseases that willdramatically affect the quality of their lives, from type 2 diabetes todebilitating arthritis to heart disease," says Jeffrey Levi, executivedirector of the Trust for America's Health, a non-profit group thatcommissioned the analysis along with the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation."The health care costs of obesity-related diseases would skyrocket bybillions of dollars a year."

If states couldreduce their residents' body mass index, a number that takes intoaccount height and weight, by as little as 5%, it could help millions ofpeople avoid those diseases and save billions in health care dollars,Levi says. For someone who is 200 pounds, that would mean droppingabout 10 pounds, he says.

"We have a choicebetween two futures -- one where obesity continues to rise at anunacceptable level, and another where we change the course. We know howto make a difference so fewer people have to suffer from obesity-relateddiseases. "

Researchers at the National HeartForum in London conducted the analysis using a statistical model thatincorporated state-by-state obesity data from the Centers for DiseaseControl and Prevention in which people self-report their height andweight in a telephone survey. Researchers adjusted for the fact thatpeople tend to under-report their weight and over-report their height.

Inanother, more rigorous CDC study, people are actually weighed andmeasured. That data show that the national obesity rate was relativelystable in the USA from 1960 to 1980, when about 15% of people fell intothat category. It increased dramatically in the '80s and '90s and was upto 32% in 2000 and 36% in 2010. Because obesity has inched up slightlyover the past decade, some experts have speculated that the increase inobesity may be slowing down or leveling off.

Anotheranalysis, released in May, suggested that overall, about 42% ofAmericans may end up obese by 2030. Justin Trogdon, a research economistwith RTI International, a non-profit organization in North Carolina'sResearch Triangle Park who conducted the earlier analysis, says of thenew prediction: "Although our study used the same CDC survey that theyused, our methods allowed for a slowing in the growth rate. So that'swhy we ended up getting lower growth rate projections than they did.

"The question is: Are there things changing in the environment that are going to change those rates of growth?"

Estimateson the cost of obesity-related illnesses vary from $147 billion a yearto $210 billion a year, Levi says. Those costs would increase by $48billion to $66 billion in 2030 if the obesity rate climbs at theprojected rate, he says.

Some states andcities are making changes to make healthier choices easier for people,he says. Some ways to turn the tide: Increase time for physical activityand improve foods served in schools, as well as offer reasonably pricedweight-loss programs in communities, Levi says.

Here's how the states stack up:

Here'sa list of the percentage of obese residents by state and District ofColumbia from highest percentage to lowest in 2011 in parentheses, plusprojected obesity rates for 2030

1. Mississippi (34.9%) -- 66.7%

2. Louisiana (33.4%) -- 62.1%

3. West Virginia (32.4%) -- 60.2%

4. Alabama (32%) -- 62.6%

5. Michigan (31.3%) -- 59.4%

6. Oklahoma (31.1%) -- 66.4%

7. Arkansas (30.9%) -- 60.6%

8. (tie) Indiana (30.8%) -- 56%

and South Carolina (30.8%) -- 62.9%

10. (tie) Kentucky (30.4%) -- 60.1%

and Texas (30.4%) --57.2%

12. Missouri (30.3%) -- 61.9%

13. (tie) Kansas (29.6%) -- 62.1%

and Ohio (29.6%) -- 59.8%

15. (tie) Tennessee (29.2%) -- 63.4%

and Virginia (29.2%) -- 49.7%

17. North Carolina (29.1%) -- 58%

18. Iowa (29%) -- 54.4%

19. Delaware (28.8%) -- 64.7%

20. Pennsylvania (28.6%) -- 56.7%

21. Nebraska (28.4%) -- 56.9%

22. Maryland (28.3%) --58.8%

23. South Dakota (28.1%) -- 60.4%

24. Georgia (28%) -- 53.6%

25. (tie) Maine (27.8%) -- 55.2%

and North Dakota (27.8%) -- 57.1%

27. Wisconsin (27.7%) -- 56.3%

28. Alaska (27.4%) -- 45.6%

29. Illinois (27.1%) -- 53.7%

30. Idaho (27%) -- 53%

31. Oregon (26.7%) -- 48.8%

32. Florida (26.6%) -- 58.6%

33. Washington (26.5%) -- 55.5%

34. New Mexico (26.3%) -- 54.2%

35. New Hampshire (26.2%) -- 57.7%

36. Minnesota (25.7%) -- 54.7%

37. (tie) Rhode Island (25.4%) -- 53.8%

and Vermont (25.4%) -- 47.7%

39. Wyoming (25%) -- 56.6%

40. Arizona (24.7%) -- 58.8%

41. Montana (24.6%) -- 53.6%

42. (tie) Connecticut, (24.5%) -- 46.5%

and Nevada (24.5%) -- 49.6%

and New York (24.5%) -- 50.9%

45. Utah (24.4%) -- 46.4%

46. California (23.8%) -- 46.6%

47. (tie) District of Columbia (23.7%) -- 32.6%

and New Jersey (23.7%) -- 48.6%

49. Massachusetts (22.7%) -- 48.7%

50. Hawaii (21.8%) -- 51.8%

51. Colorado (20.7%) -- 44.8%

Source: Trust for America's Health and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation

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