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PFT's Week Four NFL picks

12:15 PM, Sep 28, 2012   |    comments
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Posted by Mike Florio on September 27, 2012, 9:23 AM EDT, ProFootballTalk.com

In hindsight, I shouldn't have complained about the Monday night debacle.

After all, I picked the Seahawks to win by a point and, thanks to the replacement officials, Seattle won by two. Since MDS picked the Pack, it allowed me to win the weekly contest with MDS by two, 9-7 versus 7-9.

Given the crazy, upside-down games from Week Three, I'll take a winning record and run with it - as quickly as the Seahawks ran with their unwarranted win.

For the season, I'm now 27-21, and MDS is 26-22.

This week, we disagree on three games.  All 15 of our picks appear below.

Browns at Ravens

MDS's take: Browns rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden has actually looked decent the last two weeks, after a disastrous Week One. But the Ravens' defense will bring far too much heat for Weeden to handle. I look for Haloti Ngata to pound Weeden into the turf a few times on Thursday night.

MDS's pick: Ravens 27, Browns 6.

Florio's take:  The Browns are another close loss or two away from imploding completely.  They won't have to worry about another close loss on Thursday night.

Florio's pick:  Ravens 31, Browns 13.

Panthers at Falcons

MDS's take: I still don't believe the Panthers are as bad as they've looked this season, and that by the end of the year they could be fighting for a playoff spot. But Atlanta is the wrong place for the Panthers to try to get back on track.

MDS's pick: Falcons 23, Panthers 17.

Florio's take:  The Falcons have beaten the Panthers four straight times, scoring 31 points exactly in each game.  Atlanta could be on track to clinching the division by Thanksgiving.

Florio's pick:  Falcons 31, Panthers 14.

Patriots at Bills

MDS's take: This is a fascinating game in the AFC East race, one that could establish the Bills as the favorites to win the division. I've been saying all year that the Bills have made the right moves to become playoff contenders this season, but I just think the Patriots, with their backs against the wall, are going to come out focused and ready to play their best game of the season.

MDS's pick: Patriots 24, Bills 14.

Florio's take:  The Bills have beaten the Pats only once since the last time the Pats had a losing record.  Buffalo is moving in the right direction, but New England needs this one badly.

Florio's pick:  Patriots 30, Bills 23.

Vikings at Lions

MDS's take: Another fascinating divisional game, as the Vikings have a real opportunity here to establish themselves as surprising contenders in the NFC North. However, I see far too many matchup advantages for the Lions' receivers against the Vikings' secondary.  Not just Calvin Johnson (who has a matchup advantage over every defensive back in the league) but also receivers Nate Burleson and Titus Young and tight end Brandon Pettigrew should be able to get open and get points on the board in Detroit.

MDS's pick: Lions 28, Vikings 24.

Florio's take:  The Lions have won three straight in the series, but the Vikings are gaining confidence,  The Lions continue to be more flawed than anyone realized.  Receiver Jerome Simpson returns from suspension in time to help the Vikings take advantage of Detroit's biggest weakness.

Florio's pick:  Vikings 24, Lions 16.

Titans at Texans

MDS's take: The Texans are the best team in the AFC South by such a large margin that the question for me isn't whether they'll win the division but how quickly they'll clinch. My guess is some time around Week 11. This win will be another step toward that.

MDS's pick: Texans 34, Titans 10.

Florio's take:  Yeah, I picked the Titans to win the division.  And if they upset the Texans on Sunday, the Titans will thrust themselves into the conversation.  And if they upset the Texans, it will mean that I picked this specific game incorrectly.  Despite last weekend's epic in Nashville, the Titans aren't nearly as good as I thought they'd be.  The Texans are much better than I thought they'd be.

Florio's pick:  Texans 24, Titans 13.

Chargers at Chiefs

MDS's take: The Chiefs looked pretty good against the Saints on Sunday, and the Chargers looked pretty bad against the Falcons on Sunday. But I'm expecting the Chargers to win, in a game that I have a hunch will come down to special teams, where the Chargers will make plays and the Chiefs will make mistakes.

MDS's pick: Chargers 28, Chiefs 21.

Florio's take:  One week often changes everything.  Last Sunday, the Chargers went from elite to "meh" status, and the Chiefs showed they've got some fight.  Home team gets the edge in this one, especially if Jamaal Charles saved some yards for Sunday.

Florio's pick:  Chiefs 24, Chargers 22.

49ers at Jets

MDS's take: If not for the injury to Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis, I'd be very tempted to pick the 49ers to lose their second straight road game. But that Revis injury is devastating to the Jets not only because it radically changes what they can do on defense, but also because while seeing players and coaches on the Jets talking this week, you could practically feel the entire locker room deflating at the loss of their best player. I think the Jets are going to come out looking very bad on Sunday.

MDS's pick: 49ers 27, Jets 14.

Florio's take:  The difference between the 49ers defense and the Jets defense is that the 49ers didn't put all their eggs in one island.

Florio's pick:  49ers 20, Jets 13.

Seahawks at Rams

MDS's take: The Seahawks don't have any time to send thank-you notes to the league office for their gift on Monday night, because they've got a road trip to St. Louis on a short work week. I like the way Jeff Fisher's defense is playing, and I think Russell Wilson will feel a lot of pressure, but Seattle's defensive line will have Sam Bradford under pressure, and the Seahawks will win a low-scoring game.

MDS's pick: Seahawks 10, Rams 9.

Florio's take:  Short week, significant travel, improving opponent, and guilty conscience add up to trouble for the Seahawks in St. Louis.

Florio's pick:  Rams 14, Seahawks 12.

Dolphins at Cardinals

MDS's take: It's taken me a while to learn to believe in the Cardinals, but I'm there now. Which probably means they're going to lose. But I'm picking them anyway.

MDS's pick: Cardinals 24, Dolphins 7.

Florio's take:  This has the potential to be one of those early-season "correction" games.  But how can the Dolphins win if they can't score any offensive touchdowns against once of the best defenses in the league?

Florio's pick:  Cardinals 17, Dolphins 6.

Bengals at Jaguars

MDS's take: I loved the game Bengals offensive coordinator Jay Gruden called on Sunday against the Redskins. Look for Bengals receiver A.J. Green to have another big day against the Jaguars.

MDS's pick: Bengals 28, Jaguars 24.

Florio's take:  It would be fitting for the Bengals, a week after finally winning a game they were supposed to lose, to lose a game they're supposed to win.  But the Bengals are better than the Jaguars on both sides of the ball - and the Jaguars will have a hard time keeping up with a suddenly dynamic and diverse offense.

Florio's pick:  Bengals 24, Jaguars 14.

Raiders at Broncos

MDS's take: It says something about what we've come to expect from Peyton Manning that he had 330 yards, two touchdowns and no turnovers on Sunday against a very good Texans defense, and yet everyone is talking about how he's just not the same. Playing a weak Raiders defense will result in Manning looking a lot better, and the Broncos improving to 2-2.

MDS's pick: Broncos 35, Raiders 14.

Florio's take:  Peyton Manning won't need much arm strength to move the ball against a defense that can't do much to stop him.  Or anyone.

Florio's pick:  Broncos 27, Raiders 17.

Saints at Packers

MDS's take: Raise your hand if you predicted these two teams would be a combined 1-5 heading into this game. I see the Packers' problems as much more correctable than the Saints' problems, and I see Aaron Rodgers having a big day against a shaky Saints defense.

MDS's pick: Packers 27, Saints 17.

Florio's take:  The Saints can thank the Seahawks and the replacement officials for what they're about to endure.

Florio's pick:  Packers 45, Saints 17.

Redskins at Buccaneers

MDS's take: The Bucs have a bad offense and a good defense; the Redskins have a good offense and a bad defense. I like Tampa Bay's defense to keep it close and the Redskins' defense to give up a big play at the wrong time.

MDS's pick: Buccaneers 14, Redskins 10.

Florio's take:  That win over the Saints in New Orleans is looking less impressive by the week.  And the Bucs are better than their record would suggest.

Florio's pick:  Buccaneers 20, Redskins 16.

Giants at Eagles

MDS's take: The Eagles need to bounce back in a big way after laying an egg against the Cardinals. I think they're going to, with Michael Vick finally making it through a game without a turnover.

MDS's pick: Eagles 24, Giants 21.

Florio's take:  Eagles coach Andy Reid does his best work when his back is against the wall.  And his back is already against the wall.  And he said just enough this week to put his quarterback's back against the wall, too.

Florio's pick:  Eagles 27, Giants 24.

Bears at Cowboys

MDS's take: As impressive as the Bears' defense has been, I think they'll struggle with the explosiveness of Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray, who should have a huge game in a Dallas win.

MDS's pick: Cowboys 34, Bears 20.

Florio's take:  If the Cowboys can keep Tony Romo in two or fewer pieces (factoring in the possibility of the partial loss of an ear), the Cowboys should win this one.

Florio's pick:  Cowboys 26, Bears 17.

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