The United States will become the world's largest oil producer by
around 2020, temporarily overtaking Saudi Arabia, as new exploration
technologies help find more resources, the International Energy Agency
forecast on Monday.
The U.S. Energy Department said much the same in a report two weeks ago.
In its World Energy Outlook,
the IEA also predicted that greater oil and natural gas production -
thanks partly to a boom in shale gas output - as well as more efficient
use of energy will allow the U.S., which now imports some 20% of its
energy needs, to become nearly self-sufficient around 2035.
That
is "a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy-importing
countries," the Paris-based IEA said in its report. "Energy
developments in the United States are profound and their effect will be
felt well beyond North America - and the energy sector."
Rebounding U.S. oil and gas production is "steadily changing the role of North America in global energy trade," the IEA said.
For
example, oil exports out of the Mideast will increasingly go to Asia as
the U.S. becomes more self-sufficient. That will increase the global
focus on the security of strategic routes that bring Middle East oil to
Asian markets. Tensions between Iran and Western powers have raised
concern that oil exports from the Persian Gulf could be blocked in a
potential conflict over Tehran's alleged plan to develop nuclear
weapons.
The IEA said global trends in energy markets will be
influenced by some countries' retreat from nuclear power, the fast
spread of wind and solar technologies and a rise in unconventional gas
production.
The agency concluded that despite the rising use of
low carbon energy sources, huge subsidies will keep fossil fuels
"dominant in the global energy mix."
"Taking all new developments
and policies into account, the world is still failing to put the global
energy system onto a more sustainable path," the IEA said.
Global
energy needs are forecast to increase by a third by 2035, with 60% of
the additional demand coming from China, India and the Middle East.
Associated Press