Afghans will hold presidential election in spring

Political leaders in Afghanistan welcomed Wednesday's announcement that a presidential election will be held in April 2014 but expressed concerns the President Hamid Karzai may try to muscle in a successor.

"There is one problem, the campaign period is two months before the elections and it will be winter, so there will not be access to many parts of the country during that period," said Fazel Sangcharaki, a spokesman for the opposition National Front.

The last presidential election in 2009 gave rise to complaints of voter intimidation and fraud on Karzai's behalf at the expense of National Front candidate Abdullah Abdullah. Karzai insisted the elections were fair.

Ahmed Majidyar, an Afghanistan expert at the American Enterprise Institute, expressed doubts about a legitimate election taking place even if it is more than a year off.

"I think the conditions right now for holding a clear, transparent and fair elections are not in place," he says.

American and Afghan forces have brought security to many populated regions but several rural provinces continue to be havens for the Taliban and other militants. Conflict prevented a turnout in many parts of Afghanistan during the last elections.

By the spring 2014, thousands of U.S. forces present today will be gone from the battlefield under a withdrawal ordered by President Obama. He has ordered all combat forces leave Afghanistan by the end of 2014.

By law, Karzai cannot seek a third five-year term but some experts contend he will endorse a close ally, perhaps even his brother.

Quayum Karzai, the president's elder brother, is an elected official in Afghanistan and a businessman in the USA. Were he to emerge as a leading candidate it would raise concerns that Afghanistan was "starting to look too much like a family dynasty," says Michael O'Hanlon at the Brookings Institution.

Whether Karzai will endorse his brother remains unclear, says O'Hanlon.

"I don't yet know if he is going to use the resources of the state and his family to promote his successor," he says.

Karzai raised concerns earlier this month among the international community that is supporting the country economically when he chastised foreign election monitors in Afghanistan. Karzai said the Electoral Complaints Commission "is against the sovereignty of Afghanistan."

Security concerns amid a drawdown of U.S. forces could hinder the fairness of the electoral process, Majidyar said.

"If the security situation has worsened (by April 2014), then Karzai could postpone the elections," says Majidyar, saying such a move would cost Afghanistan's elected government much-needed international support to survive.

Abdullah Abdullah has indicated he may run again. He received widespread support among Afghans in the north in 2009, but he lacked the backing of the majority of Afghanistan's ethnic Pashtuns, which Karzai has enjoyed the over the last 10 years.

Other possible candidates include Afghanistan's education minister, Ghulam Farooq Wardak, a Karzai appointee in 2008 who could earn the president's endorsement were his brother not to run. One-time Karzai ally, Mohammad Hanif Atmar, is another possible candidate, says O'Hanlon.

Atmar served at the minister of interior until he was removed by Karzai following deadly attacks on a meeting of Afghan officials and elders. He is a frequent visitor to Washington, where he has issued grave warnings about the future of the country if U.S. and NATO leave the country as planned.

USA Today