WASHINGTON -- President Obama remains more trusted to address
Medicare's challenges, the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll of Swing States
shows, even as Mitt Romney challenged him over the issue Thursday in
retiree-rich Florida.
In the nation's 12 top battlegrounds,
including the Sunshine State, voters by 50%-44% say they have more faith
in Obama than his Republican challenger on Medicare. They are slightly
more likely to say Romney is proposing changes that would weaken the
nation's health care system for seniors.
There is a wider accord
on another question: By 53%-44%, most are pessimistic that Medicare will
still be providing all Americans over 65 with adequate health care
coverage 20 years from now.
At a rally in Sarasota, Romney blasted
Obama for trimming $716 billion from the Medicare Advantage program as
part of the Affordable Care Act signed two years ago. "What he has done
to Medicare to pay for Obamacare is wrong," Romney said to cheers.
Romney's plan, akin to one authored by his running mate, Paul Ryan,
would convert the entitlement program to one that would give seniors a
subsidy to buy coverage.
Romney
raised the issue at the rally -- in case anyone missed the point, he
stood in front of a huge sign that read "Protect & Strengthen
Medicare" -- and began airing a new TV ad in Florida that defends the
GOP proposal for significant change.
"Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan
get it: Medicare is going broke," Florida Sen. Marco Rubio says in the
ad, mentioning his own 81-year-old mother as evidence of his commitment
to the program. "That's not politics; it's math."
The Obama
campaign also is airing ads on Medicare, including one unveiled last
week. "Fact: Barack Obama will protect your guaranteed benefits and will
not allow Medicare to become a voucher program," the narrator says.
"Fact: Mitt Romney would take away Medicare as guaranteed benefits and
instead give future retirees 'premium support' or vouchers."
Separately,
the SEIU Thursday began airing a radio ad in Florida that features an
anxious senior asking her son about conflicting TV ads on Medicare. He
warns that the Romney-Ryan plan "does essentially end Medicare" -- a
charge disputed by independent analysts. "I don't like the sound of
that," she replies.
That sort of message resonates with Lucy Hill
of Philadelphia, at age 69 a Medicare beneficiary. She was among those
called in the USA TODAY poll. "The Republicans -- it's very frightening
to me what they might do with it," she said in a follow-up phone
interview. "I really do think we can trust that it won't be changed
significantly with Obama."
Norma Hagarman, 76, of Greenacres,
Fla., has a different view. "I think that maybe what Romney has planned
for it, maybe that will be the way to go," she said, saying competition
among insurance companies could drive down what she sees as "crazy
costs" for the government and beneficiaries.
The swing states
surveyed were Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire,
New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
The poll of 1,096 registered voters, taken Sept. 11-17, has a margin of
error of +/- 4 points.
In the poll, voters:
Are inclined to say Obama has put forward a specific plan for
Medicare, 51%-46%, while they don't think Romney has done so, 50%-44%.
This response and those on other questions seem shaped in large part by
partisan perspective: 89% of Democrats say Obama has a plan; 74% of
Republicans say Romney does.
Are divided by the impact of Obama's plan: 33% say it would
strengthen the program, 32% weaken it. The assessment of Romney's plan
is a bit more negative: 31% say it would strengthen the program, 36%
weaken it.
Differ by age on which candidate they trust more to address
Medicare's challenges. Those 65 and older, Romney's strongest age group,
trust him more by 50%-41%. But those under 30, Obama's strongest age
group, trust the president more, 67%-25%.
At stake in the debate
could be the outcome in such closely divided battleground states as
Florida, New Hampshire and Iowa that have senior-heavy electorates
especially sensitive to issues such as Medicare and Social Security.
Democratic pollster Mark Mellman says the decision to engage on Medicare
is a gamble the GOP is losing.
"This is still a tremendous
disadvantage for Republicans," he says. "They thought they could fight
it to a complete draw. They haven't even gotten it any closer." While
the margin on who is more trusted is just six percentage points, he
notes that is four points wider than Obama's 48%-46% lead in the Swing
States poll. "The fact that we're doing better on Medicare than on the
partisan split is pretty good."
Republican pollster David Winston
disputes that, saying Republicans have succeeded in narrowing what
traditionally has been a double-digit Democratic lead on health care
issues including Medicare. "Now we're still behind but six points is
significantly better than being minus 25," he says. "That's an
improvement."
It is an issue on which neither side scores very
well, he adds. "The country is still waiting for somebody to come up
with a solution that will work. That will end up making it a draw --
which for Republicans is a good outcome."
USA Today