UNF poll shows Clinton holds a slight lead over Trump in Florida

Jacksonville, Fla. –A new poll of likely voters in Florida by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida, shows that in a four-candidate contest—with Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein—Clinton holds the lead.

She leads with 43 percent, followed by Trump with 39 percent and Johnson trailing at 6 percent and Stein finishing fourth with just 3 percent. Another 9 percent is still undecided. When asked about just two candidates, 46 percent of respondents would vote for Clinton over Trump, 44 percent, if the election were held today.

“There is almost no change from our poll in early October in which Clinton led Trump by three-percentage points, 41 to 38, in the four-way contest, but the head-to-head results have tightened considerably,” said Dr. Michael Binder, PORL faculty director. “This poll has an even distribution of Democrats and Republicans, however, in this election, democrats are outperforming their historical norms in absentee and early voting. If this trend continues through Election Day, Clinton could expand this margin and easily win Florida.”
In the Florida Senate race, Marco Rubio leads Patrick Murphy, 49 to 43 percent. “Rubio is maintaining his six-percentage point lead from our poll earlier in the month. Rubio can attribute his lead to support from NPAs and more democrats willing to cast a ballot for him than republicans are for Murphy”, said Binder.

The majority of Florida likely voters, 73 percent, will vote “yes” on Amendment 2, which allows for the medical use of marijuana. “This is down four- percentage points from our last poll, but still well above the 60-percent threshold needed for passage. Interestingly, and just like in our last poll, all age groups and parties support Amendment 2,” noted Binder.

Methodology
The Florida statewide poll was conducted by PORL Thursday, Oct. 20, through Tuesday, Oct. 25, by live callers via the telephone. Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida’s Division of Elections September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, with 836 registered likely voters, 18 years of age or older.

Likely voters were considered people who had voted in a statewide election between November 2008 and March 2016 or were too young to vote in 2014 but are now eligible. In addition, to be considered a likely voter, the respondent indicated that they were “Almost Certain” or “Very Likely” to vote in November’s general election.

The margin of error is +/- 3.39 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 32 to 68 percent. The sample had quota for geography based on Florida media markets. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and is directed by Dr. Michael Binder, associate professor of political science.


The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client’s individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.
 


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