House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of Calif. and House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio sit together during a ceremony in July to award the Congressional Gold Medal posthumously to Constantino Brumidi in recognition of his artistic contributions to the U.S. Capitol building.(Photo: J. Scott Applewhite, AP)
WASHINGTON -- After more than $2 billion spent on congressional
campaigns, an onslaught of negative ads, and historically low approval
ratings, voters are still on the verge Tuesday of rehiring members of
Congress by the same partisan margins that currently divide the House
and Senate.
"We're seeing in 2012 an election that seems to be
demonstrating that the country is fairly equally divided in its
viewpoints," said former representative Tom Reynolds, a New York
Republican and the party's former campaign chief.
Wednesday could
bring about a frustrating reality to the 69% of Americans who
disapprove of Congress, which ranks among the lowest pre-election
measurements recorded by Gallup, and the gridlock that has defined the
institution for the past two years.
There will be new faces in Congress next year, but the number of Republicans and Democrats isn't going to change much.
According to data compiled by the non-partisan Cook Political Report,
there are 62 U.S. House seats with no incumbent on the ballot - a
record since 1992 - but not enough seats are forecast to change partisan
hands to upset the current balance of power. House Republicans are
heading in to Election Day with a 242-seat majority, and Cook projects
the likeliest outcome for a zero- to five-seat gain for Democrats.
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The
U.S. Senate could be an even more dramatic reinforcement of the status
quo. Democrats control the chamber 53-47, and Democrats are not only
favored to maintain control of the chamber, but it is a "strong"
possibility that the margin will not change at all, according to Reid
Wilson, an election analyst for National Journal's Hotline.
For
example, Republican wins in Nebraska, North Dakota and Montana would be
offset by Democratic wins in Maine, Massachusetts and Indiana. If no
other seats change hands, it's "game over," Wilson said, for lingering
GOP hopes of a takeover.
The outcome means the next president is
all but certain to face a similar, divided Congress. "There will be a
check on the president, whoever it is," said Don Stewart, a top aide for
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.
President Obama
will once again face Republicans in the House led by Speaker John
Boehner, R-Ohio, while a President-elect Mitt Romney will be greeted by a
combative Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.
In a
statement last week, Reid characterized it "laughable" that a Democratic
Senate would help Romney move his agenda through the chamber.
"Whether
we get different results in 2013 and 2014 depends entirely on whether
negotiations go forward on a different basis and in a different spirit,"
said William Galston, a former aide in the Clinton administration and
political analyst at the Brookings Institution. "I think we've learned
there are only two alternatives: gridlock or compromise. There is no
third alternative."
The potential for gridlock is greater than
the potential for compromise, because neither party will be able to
claim a mandate for their policies if the divided Congress is reinforced
on Election Day, Reynolds said.
"There is no mandate, and it
means that people have got to come and sit in a room and figure out what
solutions there can be and will be to govern," Reynolds said. "I don't
think the country has the luxury for the government to be at an endless
impasse."
USA Today