Echoes of 2010 loom in GOP's quest for Senate

WASHINGTON - Two years ago, Republicans had the U.S. Senate majority within striking distance, only to watch their chances wither as Election Day approached because of missteps from their candidates.

It's happening again.

Indiana Republican Richard Mourdock's comments in opposition to abortion rights for victims of rape and incest - coupled with the controversy around "legitimate rape" comments made by Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin this summer - have put two races considered in the Republican column at the onset by election forecasters now within striking distance for Democrats.

MORE: GOP's Murdock: Pregnancy from rape is God's intent

In 2010, Republicans similarly watched their prospects for a Senate takeover evaporate because of controversial comments made by candidates, including Sharron Angle in Nevada, Christine O'Donnell in Delaware and Ken Buck in Colorado. For example, three weeks before Election Day in 2010, Buck appeared on NBC's Meet the Press and said being gay is a choice and equated it to alcoholism. He also opposed abortion rights in all circumstances. He lost by 2% to Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., whom women supported by a 14-percentage-point margin.

"You look back at 2010 - it was a Republican wave year," said Jessica Taylor, an election analyst with the non-partisan Rothenberg PoliticalReport, adding that even the wave could not propel candidates such as O'Donnell and Angle to victory. "Republicans certainly had missed opportunities in 2010 that I think that they wish they had back now."

The Missouri Senate seat is currently held by a Democrat, Claire McCaskill, but Indiana is a pickup opportunity for Democrats, further eclipsing GOP chances for a takeover if they lose the seat currently held by Republican Sen. Richard Lugar. Mourdock, the state treasurer, defeated Lugar in the primary. Rothenberg now forecasts no more than a zero-to-three seat gain for Senate Republicans. They need to win four seats outright to win the majority, which Democrats control 53-47, or they need three seats and the White House for the vice president to be the tie-breaker.

"Two weeks out from Election Day, this is not the type of conversation you want to be having," Taylor said. Rothenberg regraded the race on Wednesday from one that tilted in favor of Republicans to a tossup after Mourdock said at a Tuesday debate with his Democratic opponent, Rep. Joe Donnelly, that he did not support abortion rights for victims of rape and incest because: "I think even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that is something that God intended to happen." Mourdock supports abortion rights only when a woman's life is at risk.

At a Wednesday news conference, Mourdock maintained his position. "I spoke from my heart. And speaking from my heart, speaking from the deepest level of my faith, I would not apologize," he said.

President Obama criticized Mourdock, saying that "rape is rape" and that distinctions offered by the Republican candidate "don't make any sense to me."

Mourdock's comments have forced Republicans to scramble and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney to disavow Mourdock's views, although he reiterated his support for Mourdock through a spokeswoman, Andrea Saul. "We disagree on the policy regarding exceptions for rape and incest but still support him," she said.

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., told CNN's Anderson Cooper on Wednesday that he will withhold support of Mourdock until Mourdock apologizes for his comments.

Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H., canceled a Wednesday campaign trip to Indiana to stump for Mourdock. Her spokesman, Jeff Grappone, said his comments "do not represent her views."

Akin and Mourdock have also caused headaches in other tight races, where Democrats have seized on their comments. Arizona Democratic Senate candidate Richard Carmona's campaign aligned his opponent with Akin and Mourdock. "(Republican nominee) Jeff Flake's record is in lockstep with the ignorant and dangerous comments and positions we've seen come from U.S. Senate candidates across the country," spokeswoman Elizabeth Kenigsberg said.

Flake – who opposes abortion rights with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the woman – sought distance from Mourdock and Akin. Spokesman Andrew Wilder said Flake "does not agree with some of the comments made by other candidates on this issue."

Donnelly is a socially conservative Democrat who opposes abortion rights with exceptions to rape and incest, and who has run a campaign portraying him as a bipartisan moderate and labeling Mourdock an extremist. "Joe Donnelly is the type of Democrat that can certainly win in Indiana,"Taylor said.

The conservative lean of the state means it isn't lights out for Mourdock. Party leaders are standing by him, in contrast to Akin, who was largely abandoned by the GOP. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, who runs the Senate Republicans' campaign operation, released a statement in support. "Richard Mourdock is your candidate to help get our country back on track," he said.

USA Today